How King Charles’s Australia tour could trigger a republican referendum

The visit has rekindled debate about Australia’s ties with the British monarchy – with hopeful republicans calling it the ‘farewell tour’

The King has landed. On Friday evening, as rain fell on the tarmac at Sydney airport, Charles III, King of Australia, arrived for his seventeenth visit to the country he fell in love with as a teenager – and his first as monarch.
In fact it is his first visit to any British realm since he came to the throne, and his first long-haul trip at all since his cancer diagnosis.
It is also the first royal visit to Australia by a king at all: the late Queen Elizabeth II may have made it a home-from-home, but no sovereign before her made the journey.
It is, in short, an important moment.
Not for nothing has King Charles paused his cancer treatment in order to travel 11,000 miles, in what is seen as a sign of his determination to visit not just Australia but the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa directly afterwards.
If he had been following the media coverage Down Under, he may be forgiven for wondering what exactly he is landing to face.
There is mischief promised by the republicans, who have launched a marketing campaign to pitch it as a “Farewell Tour” for the monarchy. There is a fuss over state premiers declining an invitation to a Government House event, immediately criticised as a “monumental insult” and “snub”. Even the small but determined British republican movement has followed him out here, packing their distinctive yellow “Not My King” banners they deploy at events back in the UK.
“Charles III will be the first King of Australia to visit our shores,” says one article in the local press, ominously. “He could also be the last.”
For the uninitiated, it may sound like there is trouble brewing Down Under. But for the Royal family, and those who have followed their forays into Australia for decades, it is closer to business as usual.
It is “not going to be a shock to a member of the Royal family that there are people out there discussing republicanism during a royal visit,” says Sir Peter Cosgrove, who was Governor General from 2014-2019 and has a long-standing friendship with the Royal family.
While republicans will seize any opportunity to make their arguments, he adds, “I think [Australian] people are always excited by the notion of our long and strong familial bonds with the most famous monarchy in the world.
“I would be very surprised if there was anything other than excitement and pleasure and a wish to enjoy the moment.”
Shortly after the King and Queen landed, the Sydney Opera House lit up with images of royal visits past, a very visible sign of welcome.
The reception party includes Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and New South Wales Premier Chris Minns, both of whom are confirmed republicans but have promised a warm reception.
“I’m a republican but I’m going to treat him as an honoured guest in NSW, which he genuinely is,” Mr Minns told the Australian Daily Telegraph on the morning of the visit. “I hope he’ll have a great time here and I’ll be on my best behaviour.”
The topic has hit the local radio phone-ins and breakfast television, although words like “damp squib” have been used more often than not to describe the strength of republican feeling and organisation.
“It’s absolute rubbish,” said Karl Stefanovic, presenter of the Today show of the republican movement. “It’s dead and buried in this country.”
The official party line about republicanism is this: it is a matter for the people of each country, and it is not the King’s role to persuade them either way.
“It is entirely a matter for individual nations to choose what is right for them constitutionally,” says a palace source. If they choose a different path, “then the deep roots, close connections and warm friendships remain unaltered.”
When the late Queen travelled to Australia in 2000, a year after a referendum on becoming a republic saw the country vote 55-45 to maintain the monarch as head of state, she delivered a speech to remind them: “I have always made it clear that the future of the monarchy in Australia is an issue for you, the Australian people, and you alone to decide by democratic and constitutional means. It should not be otherwise.”
Continuing to serve in line with their wishes, she added, was “my duty” and “also my privilege and my pleasure”.
A quarter of a century on, and King Charles’s aides have reiterated the tried-and-tested approach to the issue in a letter replying to to the Australian Republican Movement’s (ARM) request for a meeting, saying: “His Majesty, as a constitutional Monarch, acts on the advice of his Ministers, and whether Australia becomes a republic is, therefore, a matter for the Australian public to decide.”
Prince William, for his part, said after a 2022 Caribbean tour that the future links to monarchy there is “for the people to decide upon.”
The matter does not look as if it will be re-decided Down Under any time soon. The Prime Minister hoped for another referendum, creating a new “assistant minister for the republic” in 2022, but has since dropped immediate plans. A different referendum held last year saw Australians roundly reject greater rights for indigenous citizens after a divisive campaign.
Dr. Cindy McCreery, Associate Professor in History at the University of Sydney who focusses on the monarchy, says: “It takes a lot in general to get Australians to vote for change.”
The royal visit, she explains, is “clearly a chance for the republican movement to restate the need for a referendum,” while “monarchists [will] also use the tour to put forward their views.”
“What is harder to gauge is how ordinary Australians feel.”
She points to cultural differences between Britain and Australia – the latter displaying “less deference, less ‘oh my goodness!’” in response to royals – and younger generations feeling less of a natural family connection and sense of shared history with the UK.
Summing up the public enthusiasm for seeing the King and Queen on tour, Dr McCreery added: “There is genuine curiosity and interest. But we need to be careful of assuming that translates into interest and respect for monarchy.”
Unlike the republic movement in the UK, which is heavily critical of the institution as well as the Royal family personally, the Australian version strikes a rather more positive tone.
Instead of protest banners, it is selling T-shirts with mocked-up versions of the King, Queen and Prince William as ageing rock stars on a valedictory “farewell” tour.
“They’ve been waving at us for decades – and now it’s time for us to wave back,” it says, claiming it is time for the monarchy to “make way for the Aussie headliners to come”.
Esther Anatolitis, co-chair of the Australian Republic Movement, said: “We’re welcoming Charles and Camilla and wishing them a pleasant visit in good health and happiness.
“When we welcome Charles back to Australia on his next visit, we look forward to welcoming him as a tourist, and not as Australia’s head of state.”
What is difficult to find on the ground is personal criticism of King Charles or his family. The late Queen is still revered (“There was something almost mystical about the relationship with the late Queen,” says Sir Peter) and her heir is well-liked. 
A newspaper poll last week found that 26 per cent of respondents “like him more” since he has become King.
Much of the success of this tour rests on the individual draw of the King.
And there is a sense that, when it comes to Australia, it is personal.
Charles, as Prince of Wales, has visited 15 times officially, it was the destination of his first official overseas trips representing his mother, and has often spoken of his formative two terms as a student at Timbertop bush campus as a teenager.
In a country which has the highest rate of cancer in the world, 462.5 people per 100,000, the King’s own health troubles this year may have given ordinary Australians an extra insight into the man rather than the monarch.
“That strikes a real chord,” says Dr McCreery. “There is real empathy with Charles and the Princess of Wales – we understand the monarch at a human level.”
The King will hold an engagement particularly highlighting cancer research, mirroring his first engagement back in Britain when he was permitted back in the public eye – a visit to a cancer centre.
It will, said one source, carry “personal poignancy” for him.
He will also listen and speak about the environment, a cause which has earned him respect in the drought-ravaged areas of the country.
The King is approaching the tour with “great care and close interest in all the planning and preparations”, it is said, having pored over the multiple speeches he will make during the trip.
The royal programme is designed to amplify the causes that are “dear” to him and the Queen, the source added, as well as “celebrating their existing Australian connection forced over a lifetime in the case of the King”.
The trip is short by royal standards, cut on medical advice to allow the King to travel safely while still undergoing his cancer treatment.
A few elements of a traditional tour of this magnitude have been left out to reduce the pressure on the King and Queen, with no formal black or white tie evening banquet.  
There remains, however, up to ten engagements per day, including meetings with political leaders and events involving the public.
“The tour looks to have been framed around listening to ordinary Australians,” says Dr McCreery. “That’s key. My sense is that’s what really works, listening and being respectful.”
The programme, an official arrival plus three full days of engagements, will not leave much time for political debate.
“His Majesty’s only very small frustration is that he hopes it doesn’t feel like he’s letting down people in New Zealand or the wider communities in Australia,” said a palace aide. “As ever, it’s a wish he had more time and could go to more places and do more.”
“The King and Queen are not coming into a maelstrom of republicanism,” says Sir Peter, who guesses that if they do encounter a protest, “I’m pretty sure they will smile and wave and keep going.”
It is not something the King would instinctively “shy away from”, says another source.
There will be other issues to face too: growing calls for slave trade reparations are coming at CHOGM and the indigenous community leaders the King meets will ask him to support their calls for the repatriation of “stolen” historic artefacts.
Over the weekend, during “meet the people” moments in Sydney and Canberra, the King and Queen will also be greeted by the friendlier faces of the Australian Monarchist League, which is expecting to hand out 15,000 flags to well-wishers.
Republicanism, says its national chairman Philip Benwell, is “a big thing with the media” but “most Australians are not bothered and have other things on their mind.”
“The fact that the Prime Minister and the NSW Premier, who are both ardent republicans, are going out of their way to welcome the King and Queen is an indication of the huge reception they will receive by the Australian people.
“Being politicians, both Mr Albanese and Mr Minns follow the trend to capitalise on it.”
Should calls for an Australian Head of State to replace the line of Queens and Kings grow, monarchists are publicly sanguine.
If it ever came to it, says Sir Peter, “We would remain the strongest and most affectionate friends and member of the Commonwealth you have ever seen in your life.”
Nonetheless, it is actions and not royal words from afar that will settle any debate.
In the coming days, in speeches, small talk and at a Sydney community barbecue, the King and Queen will set out to make this visit count.